Risk Management using Model Predictive Control

Forward planning and risk management are crucial for the success of any system or business dealing with the uncertainties of the real world. Previous approaches have largely assumed that the future will be similar to the past, or used simple forecasting techniques based on ad-hoc models. Improving solutions requires better projection of future events, and necessitates robust forward planning techniques that consider forecasting inaccuracies. This work advocates risk management through optimal control theory, and proposes several techniques to combine it with time-series forecasting. Focusing on applications in foreign exchange (FX) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), the contributions of this thesis are three-fold. First, a short-term risk management system for FX dealers is formulated as a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) problem in which the optimal risk-cost profiles are obtained through dynamic control of the dealers’ positions on the spot market. Second, grammatical evolution (GE) is used to automate non-linear time-series model selection, validation, and forecasting. Third, a novel measure for evaluating forecasting models, as a part of the predictive model in finite horizon optimal control applications, is proposed. Using both synthetic and historical data, the proposed techniques were validated and benchmarked. It was shown that the stochastic FX risk management system exhibits better risk management on a risk-cost Pareto frontier compared to rule-based hedging strategies, with up to 44.7% lower cost for the same level of risk. Similarly, for a real-world BESS application, it was demonstrated that the GE optimised forecasting models outperformed other prediction models by at least 9%, improving the overall peak shaving capacity of the system to 57.6%

The involvement of fatty acid binding protein in peroxisomal fatty acid oxidation

AbstractRat liver fatty acid-binding protein (FABP) can function as a fatty acid donor protein for both peroxisomal and mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation, since 14C-labeled palmitic acid bound to FABP is oxidized by both organelles. FABP is, however, not detected in peroxisomes and mitochondria of rat liver by ELISA. Acyl-CoA oxidase activity of isolated peroxisomes was not changed by addition of FABP or flavaspidic acid, an inhibitor of fatty acid binding to FABP, nor by disruption of the peroxisomal membranes. These data indicate that FABP may transfer fatty acids to peroxisomes, but is not involved in the transport of acyl-CoA through the peroxisomal membrane

An empirical analysis of the status of good faith in contractual performance: the Australian experience

This thesis examines the concept of good faith in contractual performance as an important element in Australian contract law. The research begins with an empirical investigation of the extent of judicial support for an obligation of good faith in contract law since it was first put onto the judicial agenda in Australia by the case of Renard Construction (ME) v Minister for Works (1992) 26 NSWLR 234 through the obiter comments of Priestley J in 1992. The research continues with an empirical investigation of the meaning of good faith. There are many possible interpretations of the meaning of good faith, most of which are complex, contradictory, and unclear, which has led to undesirable uncertainty in the concept of good faith. The research then critically evaluates the possibility of legislating an obligation of good faith in contractual performance. 104 Australian cases from 1992 to 2009 that raised the issue of good faith were identified. The study period was divided into three phases; ‘Introduction Phase 1992- 1998’, ‘Development Phase 1999-2003’, and ‘Consolidation Phase 2004-2009’. These phases are examined for trends and development of the concept. A four Likerttype scale was used to access the attitude of the judges regarding the concept of good faith. In order to measure the validity and reliability of the data, the ‘average’ and ‘standard deviation’ is used in this study. The empirical observation concluded that there is still inconsistency of support from judges towards the issue of good faith. A rigorous thematic analysis of the meaning of good faith was conducted to propose a workable meaning of good faith. Despite the traditional reservations arising from uncertainty associated with the many meanings of good faith, an empirical analysis concluded that a workable meaning of good faith could be achieved by way of ‘multi-categories’. The previous Australian government accepted the recommendation to legislate good faith in the context of franchising to regulate the unethical behaviour of franchisors toward franchisees. In the context of franchising, good faith is legislated by way of ‘non-discretionary reference criteria’ as prescribed in S 22 of Australian Consumer Law. The development of good faith in the context of franchising offers a valuable opportunity for legislating good faith in contractual performance. Overall, this thesis argues that in the absence of a High Court decision regarding the application and meaning of good faith in contract law, there is scope for legislating a good faith obligation by defining good faith. This thesis suggests that good faith can be defined by way of ‘multi -categories’

The effect of SH3 domains on dynamin activity and oligomerisation

Dynamin is a GTPase enzyme that mediates vesicle fission during endocytosis to release new vesicles into the cell cytoplasm. It is recruited to sites of endocytosis in cells where it promotes vesicle fission by assembling into a collar around the vesicle neck. Dynamin is regulated by binding to proteins containing src homology 3 (SH3) domain, which stimulate its oligomerisation into rings with an associated increase in dynamin GTPase activity. However, each SH3 domain has been inconsistently studied in isolation from the others and sometimes as part of the full-length protein. This study revealed important new insights into dynamin modulation, isoform functional diversity and therefore potential function in endocytosis. Through a systematic approach, the observations overturn conclusions of several previous studies and reveal many new insights into dynamin activation and the remarkable diversity in the way SH3 domains stimulate dynamin. The existence of a previously unknown assembly independent allosteric mechanism to stimulate dynamin GTPase is revealed. The work highlights the SH3 domain of SNX9 as the most potent and consistent in vitro regulator of dynamin oligomerisation and activity. It also mapped the unique binding mechanism for SNX9 on dynamin I and revealed that this interaction is potentially phospho-regulated

Effect of posttranslational modification on the Na+, K+ ATPase kinetics

The Na+, K+ ATPase is an essential membrane protein in eukaryotic cells, which transports Na+ out of the cell in exchange for K+ into the cell. For this transport it hydrolyses one molecule of ATP for each cycle. The partial reactions of the ATPase cycle and the effects of posttranslational modifications on ATPase activity have been studied extensively. However, amalgamation of the reported rate constants for the partial reactions along with the effect of posttranslational modifications have never been attempted. We have designed a simplified four-state mathematical model of the Na+, K+ ATPase using published results for the partial reactions. We have incorporated the effect of the Na+ allosteric site and poise dependent glutathionylation and attempted to replicate K+ activated transient currents reported in voltage clamped cardiomyocytes. Our voltage clamped cardiomyocyte results indicate the K+ activated transient is an effect of poise dependent glutathionylation rather than the Na+ subsarcolemmal space. These results can be replicated to some extent by the proposed kinetic model. This is the first kinetic model of the Na+, K+ ATPase that incorporates both partial rate constants and a reported posttranslational modification which is able to reproduce voltage clamped cardiomyocyte data

Making and breaking order via clothing Clothing regulation, cross-dressing, and the ordering mentality in later medieval and early modern England

Following the events which disrupted social stability in fourteenth and fifteenth-century England, individuals from a variety of social contexts demonstrated a particular necessity to see order visibly displayed in society. This thesis examines sumptuary regulations and cross-dressing side by side to demonstrate clothing's relationship to both making and breaking order. In the act of revealing this relationship, this thesis will argue that the two cases demonstrate clothing’s importance in creating a visible confirmation of social order which ultimately brings to the surface an underlying collective ordering mentality that equated a sense of security with arranging everyone in society in their rightful place

Furosemide versus thiazide in Gordon syndrome

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